Fantasy Playoff Pool 101
By CHRIS NICHOLS -- SLAM! Sports
Finally.
After five months of regular season games, just under half of the teams in the NHL have been sent golfing. Regular season fantasy leagues are toast and it's time to whip out the stats sheets and get ready for the old office playoff pool.
Tomorrow you can look for an article on specific players from each team that could be good picks for you, as well as some possible upsets that could change the balance of power in your pool. For today though, let's stick to the basics so those of you who don't regularly join pools at this time of year can get up to speed.
There are literally dozens of different kinds of pools around, but the best test of your hockey acumen is the kind of pool where you pick X number of players before the playoffs start and there are no substitutions allowed at any point. Maybe you allow for the worst two players on each team to be dropped off the totals at the end of the playoffs to allow for injuries, but keep your original picks otherwise.
Why is this format the best test? Simply because you truly see not only who did the best job of picking which players would score the most, but also which teams would advance the furthest.
With that in mind, let's go over the basic strategy for any playoff pool. While you might do well to take Jarome Iginla and the ten points he'll get in the first round, he won't do you much good overall if Calgary gets bounced after six games. Conversely, a guy like Scott Gomez could get five points per series and end up with 20 points if the Devils go to the Finals.
In other words, you need to take into account how many games you think your players will play. Colorado and Peter Forsberg may go two, three or four rounds deep; but he's such a monster performer that even two rounds of Forsberg will be a great pick for your team.
BASIC PLAYOFF FORMULA
The simple formula that has been used for playoff pools since the dawn of time has been this: figure that each series will last six games and multiply those six games by the number of rounds you think a team will play.
In 122 career playoff games, Peter Forsberg has 143 points. That's an average of 1.17 points per game. Compared to most players, Forsberg is an absolutely monster in the post-season. Injuries are certainly a concern, but the payoff is too great to ignore him.
So, let's say you think the Avs will absolutely win their first round series against Dallas. That's a likely total of at least six games in the first round and then six games in the second round; a total of 14 points for Forsberg. If the Avs make the Conference Finals, chalk up another six games and a total of 21 points.
PICK THE CONFERENCE FINALISTS
The second part of the formula is picking the four teams that you think will advance to the Conference Finals. Even if you can only pick three of the four CF teams, that's still a total of 18 games played for each player from each one of those CF teams. Any playoff pool veteran knows that is a huge total and one that will, in most cases, win you the pool. Honestly, most people do well to pick two of the four CF teams.
Many inexperienced poolsters will spread their picks out. If they need to pick 12 players total, they'll end up with players on eight different teams. While you increase your chances of getting a player that will end up in the Stanley Cup Finals, you also guarantee that you'll get a bunch of players knocked out before the Conference Finals. It's more likely that you'll lose a third of your players after the first round alone because of the usual upsets that accompany those first series.
The development of defensive schemes has really made it difficult to pick the winners anymore. The playing field is a lot more even and defense still wins championships. One hot goalie is all it takes to advance deep into the post-season and mess up every playoff pool from Vancouver to New York.
When you try to pick the Conference Finalists, you'll need to draw up what amounts to an NCAA tournament bracket. This will allow you to not only pick the first round winners, but then also re-seed the teams in the second round to see who the potential match-ups will be. This will give you an idea of any teams that might have an easier path to the Conference Finals. Spotting that kind of trend can absolutely help you keep more players alive deeper into your pool.
PICK PROVEN PLAYOFF PERFORMERS AND SOME SLEEPERS
It might sound obvious, but you should narrow your pool choices to guys who score in the playoffs. Some guys are hot coming down the stretch, but wilt under the intense pressure of the post-season. Ales Hemsky is a great example of this from last year. He was smoking hot in the final month of the regular season and seemed to be a nice sleeper pick going into the Edmonton/ Dallas series. What happened? Physical play equaled Hemsky doing his best Jimmy Hoffa impersonation and the talented youngster came away with no points in six games and Edmonton lost their 22nd consecutive series to the Stars.
Stay tuned for tomorrow's column, which will breakdown some of the best choices from each team and my picks for each series, the Conference Finalists and the Stanley Cup winner. I'll include my top picks for each team and a sleeper or two that could help you in those deeper pools.
Also, don't forget that starting Wednesday night I'll have a recap of each night's playoff action and let you know who's hot, who's cold and who got hurt. The recap will not appear before the end of the last game of the night.
In addition to analyzing fantasy hockey for us, Chris also writes a weekly column for ESPN's fantasy hockey section. He can also be found at Mckeenshockey.com, where his News & Notes section is featured seven days a week through the end of the playoffs.
